MORE BAD NEWS FOR MOTORISTS

Cape Town - Unaudited data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) is predicting the biggest fuel price hike in South Africa's history by some margin,according to a report by the Automobile Association (AA) which has monitored the fuel price data from 1 September to date. 

According to the report, a spike in international oil prices and a huge swing in the Rand/US dollar exchange rate have combined to predict a blow at the pumps at the end of September.

Based on the current data, petrol users will be paying R1.12 more per litre! The report also shows diesel users will be hit the hardest, with a possible price hike of R1.38 per litre, pushing diesel to within a whisker of R16 per litre. 

To put this in perspective, should this increase materialise, it will push the price of 93 unleaded octane fuel inland close to R17 a litre, off a January price of R14.20 – a total increase of around 20%, year-to-date.

This massive hike in the diesel price might be catastrophic for the agricultural sector which is already reeling from the prolonged drought. Extreme fuel price hikes could push marginal businesses, including farms, to financial breaking point, and have a massive negative impact of consumer pricing.

CRIME STATS 2017/18

Cape Town - According to the latest crime statistics, 57 people are killed in South Africa every day. This constitutes a  6.9 % increase in the murder rate from the previous year's statistics. 

Presenting the 2017/2018 national crime statistics to the Portfolio Committee on Police at Parliament in Cape Town, Police Minister Bheki Cele likened this figure to the mortality rate in a war zone.

The minister also said that more than three million serious crimes had been reported across South Africa.

10 of the most important statistics from his report:

• The total number of reported crimes has increased to more than three million.

•  The murder rate has increased by 6.9 percent .

• 18 233 reported attempted murders were reported over the past year.

• 40 035 cases of rape were opened over the reporting period. This translates to a 0.5 percent decrease in reported rape cases.

•  Assault with intent to do grievous  bodily harm cases are down 1.9 percent

• Cash-in-transit robberies have increased by 56.6 percent since the previous reporting period.

• Burglaries at non-residential premises have decreased by 5.8 percent and at residential premises by 7.5 percent

• Hijackings have decreased by 2.3 percent to 16 717 reported cases.

• Business robberies have decreased by 3.1 percent from last year.

• House robberies have decreased by 0.4 percent.

SA ACTUALLY NOT IN A RECESSION - ECONOMIST

Cape Town - According to Economist Roelof Botha, South Africa is not in a recession. Botha was speaking at the Momentum Consult annual conference on Thursday. 

Statistics released by Statistics SA early this week showed the country Gross Domestic Policy(GDP) slipped into what is generally considered a technical recession - defined as two successive quarters of negative GDP growth, after GDP growth decreased by 0.7% in the second quarter of the year. This follows a restated contraction of -2.6% in the first quarter. The decrease in the country's GDP raised fears of another credit score downgrade.

However according to Botha, there is more than one way to define what a recession is. "The OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) says one should compare GDP on a year-on-year (y/y) basis rather than on a quarterly basis. If you compare the second quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2017 one can see SA is not in a recession. That is a fact,” said Botha.

And in his view, the rand - which has lost 4.4% against the dollar so far this week - will also bounce back.

RECESSION FUELS DOWNGRADES FEARS

Cape Town - The rand extended the worst decline among emerging-market peers as data released by StatsSA on Tuesday showed South Africa's economy had slipped into a recession for the first time since 2009. Stocks and bonds also fell.

The rand weakened more than 3% after data showed gross domestic product unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, raising the nation’s risk profile at a time when emerging-market assets are under pressure from a rising dollar and global trade tensions. It also increases the chance of a credit downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service, which would plunge the country’s local-currency debt into junk status.

The rand weakened to R15.34 to the US dollar, and by 15:34(Tuesday) it was trading down 3.06% at R15.31 in Johannesburg. The yields on benchmark 2026 government bonds climbed 18 basis points to 9.19%, the highest level since December.The benchmark stock index fell 0.8%, spurred by a 2.9% slump in the banking gauge as lenders including Absa Group and FirstRand fell. General retailers tumbled 3.2%, led by declines in the Foschini Group and Truworths International.

The recession complicates the South African Reserve Bank’s policy path as the consumer inflation rate creeps toward the upper limit of its inflation target. Weak growth makes it more difficult to raise interest rates, leaving the rand even more vulnerable at a time when developing nations are tightening policy.

The central bank faces a major dilemma of whether it should raise rates due to rising inflationary pressure from a weaker currency or refrain from doing so due to very weak economic activity.

KNOW MORE ABOUT DEBT REVIEW

Cape Town - A while back we wrote about how you can slowly wean yourself off debt by putting what you save on day-to-day expenses into settling your debts one by one. You begin with the smaller debts with the highest interest rates, such as credit card debt and personal loans, and slowly work your way up to your larger debts, such as your car loan.

It may be tough, but it is a relatively straightforward route to financial freedom. 

However, many South Africans are beyond the point of being able to do this. They are simply in too deep. Their debt repayments are consuming the bulk of their income, and they may be regularly missing repayments.

If you are in this position, you are probably what is referred to as “over-indebted”, and your debt problem is so big that, even if you have been ignoring it up until now, you simply can’t ignore it any longer. You may have creditors hounding you or threatening you with legal action, and your credit record is probably so tarnished that more credit is impossible to 

obtain.

You need professional help, and the sooner you admit it, the sooner you can begin the  road to paying off your debt and clearing your name.

Fortunately, the law will support you if are you genuine about going this route, and there are real benefits in the form of protection from your creditors and lower interest rates.

The route is known as debt review, or debt counselling. It was established through the National Credit Act with the objective of addressing this country’s enormous consumer-debt problem and is controlled by the National Credit Regulator (NCR). 

What is debt counselling?

Debt counselling is a regulated process whereby a qualified debt counsellor (registered with the NCR) negotiates, on your behalf, with all your creditors, to have the term of each credit agreement extended and the instalments reduced. Your debt counsellor may also persuade your creditors to reduce the interest rates on your credit agreements so that you can afford to pay off all your debt as soon as possible. The counsellor then structures a customised plan that consolidates your debt in a single monthly payment and allows for essential household expenses.

What to consider when going under Debt Review?

• You need to have a stable form of monthly income.
• You need to be approved by the debt counsellor as being over-indebted, according to the definition in the regulations (see "Definitions", below). If you fail to meet the criteria, you will not be allowed to go under debt counselling.
• There are fees involved (see “Debt-counselling costs”). These fees are regulated by the NCR.(First two reduced installments to cover legal and Debt Counselling fees).
• You will have no further access to credit until you have completed the programme and cleared your name.

At the end of the process you will receive a clearance certificate that will require your creditors and the credit bureaus to remove any information about the debt review and your previous unpaid debts from their systems.

The length of the programme depends on the amount owed to creditors. You can also make additional payments to your creditors during the process – for example, when you receive a bonus or 13th cheque. Remember, you are in control of your own finances and the debt review process.